The 2023-24 NBA season is right around the corner and it’s time to start preparing for your fantasy basketball drafts! It’s never too early to beat the competition. To kick things off, I’m going to break down my set of positional levels, starting with point guards.
Note: Only some players will have the analysis when listed in the following tiers. Players with multi-position eligibility will only appear in the story of the positional level in which they have the most minutes.
Level One: Elite PC
1) Luca DoncicDallas Mavericks
2) Shai-Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
3) Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers
4) Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
5) LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets
6) Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
7) Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks
-
After producing the best statistical season of his five-year career, Luka takes first place among elite point guards and will once again be an MVP candidate.
-
Gilgeous-Alexander deservedly gets some votes for best point guard in fantasy. He literally does everything offensively and defensively, so I wouldn’t blame anyone for choosing him in the top three picks this season. Last season he finished in the top three in value per game and total and fantasy managers will not be disappointed by selecting him in the top five picks.
-
Haliburton gets the nod over future HOF Stephen Curry thanks to his outstanding peripherals and has proven to provide 20 points with 10 assists consistently. He’s a threat to lead the league in assists and when you add his defense and efficiency, he’s an easy pick in the middle of the first round.
-
His resume speaks for itself, but if he plays 60+ games, Curry could be a top-five player.
-
Ball was on the verge of having his best season as a professional, but fell victim to an unfortunate injury. I expect him to return to All-Star form.
-
I discount Dame slightly due to his unresolved trade request, but he said he will honor his contract until he gets the issue resolved. Her situation may last until her contract expires, but until she’s in another uniform, fantasy managers can expect her Dame to give you 30 a night as a top 15 player in the NBA.
-
Young is another player with 20 points and 10 more assists who could rise even higher by increasing his FG percentage with fewer turnovers.
Level 2: Should be drafted within the first three rounds
1) Fred VanVleet, Houston Rockets
2) James Harden, Philadelphia 76ers
3) Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
-
I’m excited about VanVleet this season as he will facilitate a much more dynamic offense with the Rockets and is poised to put up his best assist numbers to date.
-
Harden is another player who was downgraded due to his trade request. Don’t be surprised if you see him drop in my rankings until there is significant movement in his contract situation. If the Sixers and Harden find a solution by the start of the season, Harden deserves to be drafted into the top two tiers of fantasy basketball.
-
Cunningham’s 22-23 season ended after just 12 games, but with a new coach and greatly improved talent surrounding him, Cunningham is looking like a success in his third year.
Tier 3: All-Star caliber PG with high floors
1) Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks
2) Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
3) Darius Garland, Cleveland Cavaliers
4) De’Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings
5) Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets
-
Murray joined this group after a memorable championship run that helped the Nuggets hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy in 2023. Murray has yet to crack the top 50 by playing more than 50 games, which will change after this season.
Tier 4: Mid-tier guards with emerging roles (mostly)
1) Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers
2) Derrick White, Boston Celtics
3) Chris Paul, Golden State Warriors
4) Tyler Herro, Miami Heat
-
I was early on the Maxey hype train last season, but Harden’s trade demands could move Maxey into a bigger role as a ball-handler and facilitator, which would be great for his fantasy value. Maxey could reach All-Star level production thanks to Nick Nurse’s reliance on starters and increased usage of him in his fourth NBA season.
-
The Celtics traded Marcus Smart to the Grizzlies in the offseason, which pushes Derrick White into the starting point guard role for one of the best teams in the league. He is one of the best defenders at the guard position, so don’t be afraid to take him like Noah Rubin has been saying all summer.
-
The sharp decline for CP3 is justified because he is 38 years old and in significant decline. However, he is one of the most decorated fantasy basketball players of the modern era and has never finished outside the top 40 in his career. He’ll be effective even if he doesn’t play heavy minutes, and that’s probably best for him at this age, anyway.
Level 5: Undervalued value picks relative to ADP
1) Marcus Smart, Memphis Grizzlies
2) Markelle Fultz, Orlando Magic
3) CJ McCollum, New Orleans Pelicans
4) Tyus Jones, Washington Wizards
5) Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies
6) Tre Jones, San Antonio Spurs
7) D’Angelo Russell, Los Angeles Lakers
-
Smart will produce at least a level four to start the season as Ja Morant will serve a 25-game suspension. However, Morant’s return will hinder his long-term value.
-
Fultz has some financial incentive to exit because he will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2023-2024 season. Last season he shot over 51% from the field and averaged career-bests in points, assists, steals, blocks and three-point percentage, so he’s a player who should move up the draft boards.
-
McCollum shot poorly and had his highest turnover rate in eight seasons, which had him barely cracking the top 90 in fantasy last year. However, he will go in the eighth round of early drafts, and that seems low, considering he is capable of averaging 21 points with four rebounds and five-plus assists with a talented Pelicans team.
[Join or create a 2023-24 Fantasy Basketball league now!]
-
Poole’s arrival has temporarily put Tyus Jones’ plans to become a fantasy star on hold, but he still boasts a fantasy-ready skill set. He is fully capable of matching his production as a starter last season: over 16 points with four rebounds, eight assists, plenty of steals and a low turnover rate.
-
Tre, Tyus’ brother, is in a better position this season now that the Spurs have waived Cam Payne and a guy named Victor Wembanyama is in the building. Jones has an exceptional assist-to-turnover ratio and is coming off his best year as a pro. He will run the Spurs attack and they will be better because of it.
-
D’Angelo Russell signed a new deal to remain with the Lakers, and is expected to start at point guard (in name only) for Los Angeles. The Lakers also signed Gabe Vincent and I’m concerned about Russell’s assist numbers alongside LeBron James and Austin Reaves.
Level 6: Final draft-worthy picks
1) Spencer Dinwiddie, Brooklyn Nets
2) Scoot Henderson, Portland Trail Blazers
3) De’Anthony Melton, Philadelphia 76ers
4) Russell Westbrook III, Los Angeles Clippers
-
Dinwiddie is considered the third option in Brooklyn, but has traditionally never been more than a fringe top-120 player in fantasy, despite playing nearly 30 minutes a night.
-
Scoot Henderson is one of the few rookies I expect to get work done, but it could take some time. Whenever Lillard is traded, Scott is likely the biggest beneficiary. His brief stint at the 2023 Las Vegas Summer League was enough to see that he’s the real deal.
-
With or without Harden, Melton will be a key piece of the 76ers’ rotation and remains a strong three-point shooter and fantasy steal specialist. An increase in minutes would be ideal for his fantasy appeal.
-
Russell Westbrook is probably higher than expected, but his time as a Clipper was productive. He was a top-100 player and rarely misses games, so if you’re looking for assists, goals and rebounds late in the draft, Westbrook is an option, as long as you can mask his poor shooting.
Level 7: Combination of veterans and potential sixth man candidates
1) Collin Sexton, Utah Jazz
2) Malcolm Brogdon, Boston Celtics
3) Mike Conley, Minnesota Timberwolves
4) Immanuel Quickley, New York Knicks
5) Dennis Schroder, Toronto Raptors
6) Ben Simmons, Brooklyn Nets
7) Jevon Carter, Chicago Bulls
8 Cole Anthony, Orlando Magic
9) Kyle Lowry, Miami Heat
10) Gabe Vincent, Los Angeles Lakers
11) Kris Dunn, Utah Jazz
12) Dennis Smith Jr. – Brooklyn Nets
-
Brogdon is the most efficient of the group but runs some risk of injury, along with Sexton, Conley and Lowry. He also feels slighted by the Celtics, so be sure to keep an eye out for any potential trades on the horizon.
-
Last season was Quickley’s coming-out party, and he’s poised to become one of the best bench guards in the league and has top-100 potential.
-
Schroder is over the moon after taking home a gold medal for Germany at the FIBA World Cup a couple of weeks ago. As the presumed starting point guard for a rebuilding Raptors franchise, he should be drafted in all formats.
-
The Bulls’ starting job is up for grabs, and Jevon Carter is a candidate to take over for Alex Caruso and Ayo Dosunmu.
Level 8: Waiver options that could become fantasy relevant
1) Monte Morris, Detroit Pistons
2) TJ McConnell, Indiana Pacers
3) Ayo Dosunmu, Chicago Bulls
4) Cameron Payne, FA
5) Jaden Hardy, Dallas Mavericks
6) Bones Hyland, Los Angeles Clippers
7) Alex Caruso, Chicago Bulls
8) Delon Wright, Washington Wizards
9) Davion Mitchell, Sacramento Kings
10) Patrick Beverley, Philadelphia 76ers
-
Morris and McConnell are the seasoned veterans who could help your roster if the injury bug hits Detroit or Indiana’s backcourts.
-
Hardy should see more minutes off the bench after a decent performance at the 2023 Las Vegas Summer League.
-
Then there are a number of guards who could be retired during the season: Hyland, Caruso, Wright Mitchell and Beverley.